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The purpose of this article is twofold. First, this study characterises the current state of the bio-packaging market's development. Second, it identifies key factors influencing and possible scenarios of the bio-packaging market transition to increase the market share of compostable packaging.

The results of 29 in-depth interviews (IDIs) with representatives of the key groups of bio-packaging supply chains' (SCs') stakeholders were the input for the consideration of the research problem.

The main economic, legal, social and technological enablers and barriers to the bio-packaging regime transition are recognised, and their impact at the market level is explained. The authors recognised the hybrid transition scenario towards an increase in the market share of compostable packaging related to the three traditional pathways of transformation, reconfiguration and technological substitution.

This study contributes to a better understanding of the socio-technical system theory by examining interdependencies between landscape (external environment), market regime (bio-packaging market) and niche innovations (compostable packaging) as well as system transition pathways. The findings and conclusions on bio-packaging market developments can be important lessons learnt to be applied in different countries due to the same current development stage of the compostable packaging lifecycle worldwide.