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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 6 February 2019

Ngo Thai Hung

This paper aims to study the daily returns and volatility spillover effects in common stock prices between China and four countries in Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to study the daily returns and volatility spillover effects in common stock prices between China and four countries in Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia).

Design/methodology/approach

The analysis uses a vector autoregression with a bivariate GARCH-BEKK model to capture return linkage and volatility transmission spanning the period including the pre- and post-2008 Global Financial Crisis.

Findings

The main empirical result is that the volatility of the Chinese market has had a significant impact on the other markets in the data sample. For the stock return, linkage between China and other markets seems to be remarkable during and after the Global Financial Crisis. Notably, the findings also indicate that the stock markets are more substantially integrated into the crisis.

Practical implications

The results have considerable implications for portfolio managers and institutional investors in the evaluation of investment and asset allocation decisions. The market participants should pay more attention to assess the worth of across linkages among the markets and their volatility transmissions. Additionally, international portfolio managers and hedgers may be better able to understand how the volatility linkage between stock markets interrelated overtime; this situation might provide them benefit in forecasting the behavior of this market by capturing the other market information.

Originality/value

This paper would complement the emerging body of existing literature by examining how China stock market impacts on their neighboring countries including Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia. Furthermore, this is the first investigation capturing return linkage and volatility spill over between China market and the four Southeast Asian markets by using bivariate VAR-GARCH-BEKK model. The authors believe that the results of this research’s empirical analysis would amplify the systematic understanding of spillover activities between China stock market and other stock markets.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 24 no. 47
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 February 2024

Hoang Thi Xuan and Ngo Thai Hung

Accelerating the green economy’s transition is a practical means of lowering emissions and conserving energy, and its effects on the greenhouse effect merit careful consideration…

Abstract

Purpose

Accelerating the green economy’s transition is a practical means of lowering emissions and conserving energy, and its effects on the greenhouse effect merit careful consideration. Growing environmental deterioration has compelled decision-makers to prioritize sustainability alongside economic growth. Policymakers and the business community are interested in green investment (GRE), but its effects on social and environmental sustainability are still unknown. Based on this, this study aims at looking into the time-frequency interplay between GRE and carbon dioxide emissions and assessing the impacts of economic growth, financial globalization and fossil fuel energy (FUE) usage on this nexus in Vietnam across different time and frequency domains.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employ continuous wavelets, cross wavelet transforms, wavelet coherence, Rua’s wavelet correlation and wavelet-based Granger causality tests to capture how the domestic variance and covariance of two-time series co-vary as well as the co-movement interdependence between two variables in the time-frequency domain.

Findings

The results shed new light on the fact that GRE will increase the levels of environmental quality in Vietnam in the short and medium run and there is a bidirectional causality between the two indicators across different time and frequencies. In addition, when the authors observe the effect of economic growth, financial globalization and fossil fuel energy consumption on this interplay, the findings suggest that, in different time and frequencies, any joined positive change in these indicators will move the CO2 emissions-GRE nexus.

Practical implications

Policymakers and governments can greatly benefit from this topic by utilizing the function of economic institutions in capital control of GRE and CO2 emissions and modifying the impact of GRE on the greenhouse effect by accelerating the green growth of economic industries.

Originality/value

The current work contributes to the current literature on GRE and CO2 emissions in several dimensions: (1) considering the sustainable development in Vietnam, by employing a new single-country dataset of GRE index, this paper aims to contribute to the growing body of research on the factors that influence CO2 emissions, as well as to provide a detailed explanation for the relationship between GRE and CO2 emissions; (2) localized oscillatory components in the time-domain region have been used to evaluate the interplay between GRE and CO2 emission in the frequency domain, overcoming the limitations of the fundamental time-series analysis; (3) the mediation role of economic growth, financial globalization and FUE in affecting the GRE-CO2 relationship is empirically explored in the study.

Details

Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, vol. 35 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1477-7835

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 May 2023

Peterson Owusu Junior and Ngo Thai Hung

This paper investigates the probable differential impact of the confirmed cases of COVID-19 on the equities markets of G7 and Nordic countries to ascertain possible…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates the probable differential impact of the confirmed cases of COVID-19 on the equities markets of G7 and Nordic countries to ascertain possible interdependencies, diversification and safe haven prospects in the era of the COVID-19 pandemic over the short-, intermediate- and long-term horizons.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors apply a unique methodology in a denoised frequency-domain entropy paradigm to the selected equities markets (Li et al. 2020).

Findings

The authors’ findings reinforce the operability of the entrenched market dynamics in the COVID-19 pandemic era. The authors divulge that different approaches to fighting the pandemic do not necessarily drive a change in the deep-rooted fundamentals of the equities market, specifically for the studied markets. Except for an extreme case nearing the end (start) of the short-term (intermediate-term) between Iceland and either Denmark or the US equities, there exists no potential for diversification across the studied markets, which could be ascribed to the degree of integration between these markets.

Practical implications

The authors’ findings suggest that politicians should pay closer attention to stock market fluctuations as well as the count of confirmed COVID-19 cases in their respective countries since these could cause changes to market dynamics in the short-term through investor sentiments.

Originality/value

The authors measure the flow of information from COVID-19 to G7 and Nordic equities using the entropy methodology induced by the Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (ICEEMDAN), which is a data-driven technique. The authors employ a larger sample period as a result of this, which is required to better comprehend the subtleties of investor behaviour within and among economies – G7 and Nordic geographical blocs – which largely employed different approaches to fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors’ focus is on diverging time horizons, and the ICEEMDAN-based entropy would enable us to measure the amount of information conveyed to account for large tails in these nations' equity returns. Furthermore, the authors use a unique type of entropy known as Rényi entropy, which uses suitable weights to discern tailed distributions. The Shannon entropy does not account for the fact that financial assets have fat tails. In a pandemic like COVID-19, these fat tails are very strong, and they must be accounted for.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 24 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 August 2020

Ngo Thai Hung

This paper aims to investigate the dynamic linkage between stock prices and exchange rate changes for the Gulf Arab countries (Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the dynamic linkage between stock prices and exchange rate changes for the Gulf Arab countries (Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates [UAE]).

Design/methodology/approach

The author uses the Markov-switching autoregression to detect regime-shift behavior in the stock returns of the Gulf Arab countries and Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) model to capture the dynamic interrelatedness between exchange and stock returns over the period 2000–2018.

Findings

This study’s analysis finds evidence to support the persistence of two distinct regimes for all markets, namely, a low-volatility regime and a high-volatility regime. The low-volatility regime illustrates more persistence than the high-volatility regime. Specifically, exchange rate changes do not have an influence on the stock market returns of the Gulf Arab countries, regardless of the regimes. On the other hand, stock market returns have a substantial impact on exchange markets for all countries, except Saudi Arabia, and it is more noticeable during the regime of high volatility.

Practical implications

The findings shed light on the interconnectedness between two of the most important financial markets in the complex international financial environment. They are thus of particular interest for economic policymakers and portfolio investors.

Originality/value

The author distinguishes this study from previous studies in several ways. First, while previous empirical studies of the dynamic linkage between stock prices and foreign exchange markets are primarily devoted to developed markets or emerging markets, this study’s interest is concentrated on four Gulf Arab financial markets (Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE). Second, unlike most investigations in the literature that only estimate this link for the whole period, this study attempts to estimate during the good and bad period by using a two-regime MS-VAR model. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study of the Gulf Arab countries on the stock and foreign exchange markets to apply this model.

Details

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, vol. 11 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0817

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 February 2021

Ngo Thai Hung

This study aims to analyze the dynamic relationship between the Bitcoin market and the conventional asset classes in India

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to analyze the dynamic relationship between the Bitcoin market and the conventional asset classes in India

Design/methodology/approach

This paper aims to cast light on the dynamic linkages between Bitcoin prices and other conventional asset classes in India by using the wavelet transform frameworks, which can allow us to analyze components of time series without losing the information. To do that, the techniques used with the data set include wavelet-based covariance, correlation, coherence spectrum, continuous power spectrum and Granger causality test.

Findings

The findings of the study suggest that interrelationships between Bitcoin and the key financial asset returns are statistically significant at low, medium and high frequencies. This study also finds the existence of the unidirectional connectedness between Bitcoin the other assets in India.

Practical implications

The outcome of the analysis calls for substantial policy implications for investors, portfolio management in India. This research on the existence of the interconnectedness between Bitcoin and other conventional asset classes in a specific country context, India can, therefore, make a significant contribution to the contemporary debate about the speculative nature of the cryptocurrencies. It casts light on whether Bitcoin provides any diversification and risk management benefits for Indian, as well as global investors.

Originality/value

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first paper investigating the interrelatedness between Bitcoin and key conventional asset classes in India. This research makes methodological advancements by using the wavelet coherence transform. The findings provide empirical bases from which to deal with issues regarding hedging purposes and optimal portfolio allocation for an increasing number of investors in the Indian context. Therefore, the main contribution of this study to related literature in this field is significant.

Details

Journal of Indian Business Research, vol. 13 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4195

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 November 2023

Ngo Thai Hung

This study aims to attempt to investigate the time-varying causality and price spillover effects between crude oil and exchange rate markets in G7 economies during the COVID-19…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to attempt to investigate the time-varying causality and price spillover effects between crude oil and exchange rate markets in G7 economies during the COVID-19 and Russia–Ukraine crises.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses time-varying Granger causality test and spillover index.

Findings

This study finds a time-varying causality between exchange rate returns and oil prices, implying that crude oil prices have the predictive power of the foreign exchange rate markets in G7 economies in their domain. Furthermore, the total spillover index is estimated to fall significantly around COVID-19 and war events. However, this index is relatively high – more than 57% during the first wave of COVID-19 and decreasing slightly during the Russia–Ukraine conflict.

Practical implications

This outcome supports the hypothesis that the majority of the time-varying interaction between exchange rates and oil prices takes place in the short term. As a result, the time-varying characteristics provide straightforward insight for investors and policymakers to fully understand the intercorrelation between oil prices and the G7 exchange rate markets.

Originality/value

First, this study has reexamined the oil–exchange rate nexus to highlight new evidence using novel time-varying Granger causality model recently proposed by Shi et al. (2018) and the spillover index proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). These approaches allow the author to improve understanding of time-varying causal associations and return transmission between exchange rates and oil prices. Second, compared to past papers, this paper has used data from December 31, 2019, to October 31, 2022, to offer a fresh and accurate structure between the markets, which indicates the unique experience of the COVID-19 outbreak and Russia–Ukraine war episodes. Third, this study analyzes a data set of seven advanced economies (G7) exhibiting significant variations in their economic situations and responding to global stress times.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 40 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 December 2023

Ho Thuy Tien, Nguyen Mau Ba Dang and Ngo Thai Hung

This paper aims to investigate the conditional equicorrelation and cross-quantile dependence between the DeFi, European and GCC currency markets (Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the conditional equicorrelation and cross-quantile dependence between the DeFi, European and GCC currency markets (Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates).

Design/methodology/approach

This study applies the GARCH-DECO model and cross-quantilogram framework.

Findings

The findings reveal evidence of weak and negative average equicorrelations between the examined markets through time, excluding the COVID-19 outbreak and Russia–Ukraine conflict, which is consistent with the literature examining relationships in different markets. From the cross-quantilogram model, the authors note that the dependence between DeFi, EURO and GCC foreign exchange rate markets is greatest in the short run and diminishes over the medium- and long-term horizons, indicating rapid information processing between the markets under consideration, as most innovations are transmitted in the short term.

Practical implications

For the pairs of DeFi and currency markets, the static and dynamic optimal weights and hedging ratios are also estimated, providing new empirical data for portfolio managers and investors.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is one of the most important research looking into the conditional correlation and predictability between the DeFi, EURO and GCC foreign exchange markets. More importantly, this study provides the first empirical proof of the safe-haven, hedging and diversification qualities of DeFi, EURO and GCC currencies, and this work also covers the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war with the use of a single dynamic measure produced by the GARCH-DECO model. In addition, the directional predictability between variables under consideration using the cross-quantilogram model is examined, which can be capable of capturing the asymmetry in the quantile dependent structure. The findings are helpful for both policymakers and investors in improving their trading selections and strategies for risk management in different market conditions.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 17 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 March 2022

Ho Thuy Tien and Ngo Thai Hung

This study aims to examine the spillover effects of the mean and volatility between oil prices and stock indices of six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (UAE, Kuwait…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the spillover effects of the mean and volatility between oil prices and stock indices of six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain).

Design/methodology/approach

Over the period 2008–2019, a bivariate VARMA-GARCH-ADCC model was combined with the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform technique filter to shed light on a wide range of possible spillover effects in the mean and variances of level prices at various time horizons.

Findings

The authors find that the spillover effects between oil prices and the GCC stock markets are time-varying and spread across various time horizons. Besides, oil prices and stock market indices are directly impacted by their own shocks and variations and indirectly influenced by other price volatilities and wavelet scales. The linkages in volatility spillovers between oil prices and the GCC stock markets occur in the short-term, midterm and long-term horizons. More specifically, the results also show that the asymmetric estimates are statistically significant for the associations between oil prices and each stock market in the GCC countries. This implies that negative shocks play a more vital role than positive shocks in driving the dynamic condition correlations between oil and stock markets under study.

Practical implications

The significant interrelatedness between oil prices and each stock market in the GCC countries has important implications for investors, portfolio managers, and other market participants. They can use the findings of this research to create the best oil-GCC stock portfolios and predict more precisely the volatility spillover patterns in constructing their hedging strategies.

Originality/value

In several ways, this study differs from previous research. First, while previous empirical studies of the dynamic link between oil prices and stock markets have focused primarily on developed or emerging markets, the focus of this is on six GCC countries. Second, the linkage between oil prices and stock markets is typically studied at the original data level in the time domain in relevant literature, while frequency information is overlooked. Therefore, the current study examines this relationship from a multiscale perspective. Third, in this paper, to capture a wide range of possible spillover effects in the mean and variance of level prices at multiple wavelet scales, the authors use a VARMA-GARCH-ADCC model in conjunction with wavelet multiresolution analysis. Additionally, this article also applies wavelet hedge ratio and wavelet hedge portfolio analysis at various time horizons.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 15 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 February 2022

Ngo Thai Hung

This paper investigates the dynamic intercorrelation among cryptocurrency (Bitcoin) and conventional financial assets (gold, oil and S&P 500).

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates the dynamic intercorrelation among cryptocurrency (Bitcoin) and conventional financial assets (gold, oil and S&P 500).

Design/methodology/approach

The dynamic contemporaneous nexus has been analyzed using spillover index developed and extended by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) and Kyrtsou-Labys (2006) nonlinear causality tests. This study is implemented using the daily data spanning from January 2013 to December 2021.

Findings

First, using the spillover index, the authors find evidence that the S&P 500 was a net transmitter of volatility from oil and gold markets, but a net receiver of volatility from Bitcoin. Return spillovers from crude oil were transmitted first to gold, and Bitcoin markets and return spillovers from gold were transmitted to Bitcoin. Second, Kyrtsou-Labys nonlinear causality tests provide us further insights into the lead-lag interconnections among the four key considered variables from the economic perspective. Specifically, a close inspection of these empirical results, the integration of the four key assets is significant. Similarly, price fluctuation dependency among Bitcoin, stock, gold and oil markets is generally minimal, but it strengthens throughout the COVID-19 period.

Originality/value

This paper is the first study employing the spillover index Diebold-Yilmaz alongside with Kyrtsou-Labys nonlinear causality tests not only to capture the directional return spillover effects but also to highlight the potential presence of asymmetric causality relationships, nonlinear effects among assets under investigation that the previous studies have been ignored in these relations. Therefore, the main contribution of this article to the related literature in this field is significant.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 48 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 18 May 2021

Ngo Thai Hung

This study examines the inter-linkages between Bitcoin prices and CEE stock markets (Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania and Croatia).

2218

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the inter-linkages between Bitcoin prices and CEE stock markets (Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania and Croatia).

Design/methodology/approach

The dynamic contemporaneous nexus has been analyzed using both the multivariate DECO-GARCH model proposed by Engle and Kelly (2012) and quantile on quantile (QQ) methodology proposed by Sim and Zhou (2015). Our study is implemented using the daily data spanning from 6 September 2012 to 12 August 2019.

Findings

First, the findings show that the average return equicorrelation across Bitcoin prices and CEE stock indices are positive, even though it is found to be time-varying over the research period shown. Second, the Bitcoin-CEE stock market association has positive signs for most pairs of quantiles of both variables and represents a rather similar pattern for the cases of Poland, the Czech Republic and Croatia. However, a weaker and primarily negative connectedness is found for Hungary and Romania, respectively. Furthermore, the interconnectedness between the co-movements in the Bitcoin market and stock returns changes significantly across quantiles of both variables within each nation, indicating that the Bitcoin-stock market relationship is dependent on both the cycle of the stock market and the nature of Bitcoin price shocks.

Practical implications

The evidence documented in this study has significant implications for divergent economic agents, including global investors, risk managers and policymakers, who would benefit from a comprehensive knowledge of the Bitcoin-stock market relationship to build efficient risk-hedging models and to conduct appropriate policy reactions to information spillover effects in different time horizons.

Originality/value

This paper is the first study employing both the multivariate DECO-GARCH model and QQ methodology to shed light on the nexus between Bitcoin prices and the stock markets in CEE countries. The DECO model uses more information to compute dynamic correlations between each pair of returns than standard dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) models, declining the estimation noise of the correlations. Besides, QQ approach allows us to capture some nuanced features of the Bitcoin-stock market relationship and explore the interdependence in its entirely. Therefore, the main contribution of this article to the related literature in this field is significant.

研究目的

本研究旨在探討比特幣的價格與中東歐股市(匈牙利、捷克共和國、波蘭、羅馬尼亞和克羅地亞) 之相互聯繫.

研究設計/方法/理念

研究使用恩格爾與凱利(2012)(Engle and Kelly (2012)) 提出的多變量DECO-GARCH模型及Sim 與Zhou(2015)(Sim and Zhou ( 2015)) 研製的分位數-分位數方法來分析動態同期的聯繫。我們的研究使用由2012年9月6日至2019年8月12日期間取得的每日數據來進行.

研究結果

首先、研究結果顯示、跨比特幣價格與中東歐股價指數的平均回報當量關聯是正相關的,即使在研究期間被發現是隨時間而變化的。第二、比特幣與中東歐股市之聯繫在大多數兩變數分位數對而言出現正相關跡象,而且,這聯繫在波蘭、捷克共和國及克羅地亞而言表現一個頗相似的模式。唯就匈牙利而言、這聯繫則較弱、而羅馬尼亞則主要是負聯繫。研究結果亦顯示: 比特幣市場內的聯動與股票回報間之內在關聯會在每個國家內跨兩個變數的分位數而顯著地改變,這顯示比特幣-股市關係是取決於股市的週期和比特幣價格衝擊的本質.

實際的意義

本研究所記載的證據、對不同的經濟行為者而言極具意義 (這包括國際投資者、風險管理經理和政策制定者),因他們會受惠於對比特幣-股市關係的全面認識,他們可建立有效的風險對沖模型、及在不同時間範圍對資訊溢出效應進行適當的政策反應.

研究的原創性/價值

本文為首個研究使用多變量DECO-GARCH模型和分位數-分位數(QQ)方法、來解釋比特幣價格與中東歐國家之股市的關係。這DECO模型使用比標準動態條件關係模型更多資訊,來計算每對回報間之動態關係,這能減少估測雜訊,而且,QQ方法讓我們可以取得比特幣-股市關係的一些細微特徵及全面地探索其相互依賴性。因此,本文的主要貢獻是在這學術領域內有關的文獻上.

Details

European Journal of Management and Business Economics, vol. 30 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2444-8451

Keywords

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