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Thaddeus Sim and Ronald H. Wright
Historical stock prices have long been used to evaluate a stock’s future returns as well as the risks associated with those returns. Similarly, historical dividends have been used…
Abstract
Historical stock prices have long been used to evaluate a stock’s future returns as well as the risks associated with those returns. Similarly, historical dividends have been used to evaluate the intrinsic value of a stock using, among other methods, a dividend discount model. In this chapter, we propose an alternate use of the dividend discount model to enable an investor to assess the risks associated with a particular stock based on its dividend history. In traditional applications of the dividend discount model for stock valuation, the value of a stock is the net present value of its future cash dividends. We propose an alternative approach in which we calculate the internal rate of return for a stream of future cash dividends assuming the current stock price. We use a bootstrapping approach to generate a stream of future cash dividends, and use a Monte Carlo simulation approach to run multiple trials of the model. The probability distribution of the internal rates of return obtained from the simulation model provides an investor with an expected percentage return and the standard deviation of the return for the stock. This allows an investor to not only compare the expected internal rates of return for a group of stocks but to also evaluate the associated risks. We illustrate this internal rate of return approach using stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
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Haonan Hou, Chao Zhang, Fanghui Lu and Panna Lu
Three-way decision (3WD) and probabilistic rough sets (PRSs) are theoretical tools capable of simulating humans' multi-level and multi-perspective thinking modes in the field of…
Abstract
Purpose
Three-way decision (3WD) and probabilistic rough sets (PRSs) are theoretical tools capable of simulating humans' multi-level and multi-perspective thinking modes in the field of decision-making. They are proposed to assist decision-makers in better managing incomplete or imprecise information under conditions of uncertainty or fuzziness. However, it is easy to cause decision losses and the personal thresholds of decision-makers cannot be taken into account. To solve this problem, this paper combines picture fuzzy (PF) multi-granularity (MG) with 3WD and establishes the notion of PF MG 3WD.
Design/methodology/approach
An effective incomplete model based on PF MG 3WD is designed in this paper. First, the form of PF MG incomplete information systems (IISs) is established to reasonably record the uncertain information. On this basis, the PF conditional probability is established by using PF similarity relations, and the concept of adjustable PF MG PRSs is proposed by using the PF conditional probability to fuse data. Then, a comprehensive PF multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) scheme is formed by the adjustable PF MG PRSs and the VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) method. Finally, an actual breast cancer data set is used to reveal the validity of the constructed method.
Findings
The experimental results confirm the effectiveness of PF MG 3WD in predicting breast cancer. Compared with existing models, PF MG 3WD has better robustness and generalization performance. This is mainly due to the incomplete PF MG 3WD proposed in this paper, which effectively reduces the influence of unreasonable outliers and threshold settings.
Originality/value
The model employs the VIKOR method for optimal granularity selections, which takes into account both group utility maximization and individual regret minimization, while incorporating decision-makers' subjective preferences as well. This ensures that the experiment maintains higher exclusion stability and reliability, enhancing the robustness of the decision results.
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Ameet Kumar Banerjee, Md Akhtaruzzaman and Soumen Chatterjee
Our study investigates the influence of peer performance on the earnings management decisions within publicly traded Indian companies. There is mixed evidence in the literature…
Abstract
Purpose
Our study investigates the influence of peer performance on the earnings management decisions within publicly traded Indian companies. There is mixed evidence in the literature, with the impact of peer performance on earnings management in emerging markets being notably underexplored. Additionally, the study explores whether robust corporate governance mechanisms can mitigate earnings management practices. Our study offers policy insights into these areas.
Design/methodology/approach
Our study used a longitudinal panel dataset from 2011 to 2020, utilising idiosyncratic returns of peer firms as an external measure of peer performance. This approach is further enhanced by the usage of alternative discretionary accrual metrics, which could be a robust measure for both market leaders and followers.
Findings
Our study employs two distinct methods, accrual and real earnings management, to assess earnings management. The findings indicate that peer performance triggers earnings management within peer groups, showcasing managerial opportunism in financial reporting to align with peer achievements. Furthermore, the evidence suggests that robust corporate governance effectively curtails earnings management, especially in industries where peer influence is significant.
Practical implications
Our study offers valuable insights for regulators, highlighting that enhancing the institutional framework with stringent corporate governance mechanisms can effectively reduce earnings management in companies within emerging markets.
Originality/value
The paper is a novel attempt in emerging markets to show that managers engage in opportunistic reporting to align with the performance of their peers and that governance strategies effectively mitigate these practices in such markets.
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The purpose of this paper is to clarify the ontological assumptions regarding the concept of agency and sociality within business networks in the Industrial Marketing and…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to clarify the ontological assumptions regarding the concept of agency and sociality within business networks in the Industrial Marketing and Purchasing Group (IMP) research by refining these assumptions with a relational sociological (RS) perspective. This paper reinforces the robustness of the actors-resources-activities (ARA) model with an in-depth investigation of the actor dimension, where local interactions between interdependent individuals play a central role in building common futures within business networks through organisational reflexivity.
Design/methodology/approach
This conceptual paper investigates the social ontology of research. It challenges the implicit assumptions of IMP research regarding agency and sociality within business networks with a problematisation strategy (Sandberg and Alvesson, 2011). Combining IMP views on agency with the RS perspective, it sets this combined framework as an alternative for the analysis of sustainability and ethics within business networks.
Findings
Combining IMP research and an RS perspective allows us to extend the knowledge of sociality within business networks, highlighting the centrality of meaning sharing in the process of network change. By focusing on symbolic interaction processes, an RS perspective contributes to a deeper theoretical understanding of the relationship between local communication and business network patterns. Combined with an IMP perspective on agency, it provides researchers with an alternative conceptual framework for examining sustainability by considering ethics and leadership dialectically.
Research limitations/implications
RS is still an emerging stream within sociology, characterised by diverse views. Not all relational sociologists, as scientists, feel obliged to engage with sustainability research. Thus, the paper is a two-sided invitation to IMP researchers and relational sociologists to delve into the adaptation processes in business networks in highly uncertain environments.
Practical implications
RS focusing on the centrality of communication in local interactions, business network researchers can show that organisational leaders are not the ones with a charismatic vision isolated from any natural and social environment; rather, they are the people with “the capacity to assist the group to continue acting ethically, creatively and courageously in the unknown” (Stacey,2013).
Social implications
Adopting an RS perspective on agency in business networks can help managers and researchers determine how business networks can be managed in a more sustainable way. Combined with a dialectical and processual understanding of ethics, the IMP-RS perspective emphasises day-to-day local communication practices within and between organisations that challenges microeconomic views on nature, strategy, ethics and leadership. This paper thus places the social at the centre of sustainability approaches.
Originality/value
From an RS perspective, business networks are analysed as patterns of interactions between many organisations and individuals. The value of this conceptual paper is in showing that change within business networks is negotiated through local interactions and symbolic communication between individuals. Thus, it suggests the need to combine the individual and the organisational levels to analyse agency within business networks and to examine the adaptation of business networks to sustainability.
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Je crois devoir vous donner connaissance dès l'abord, de la façon dont un groupe d'experts fran‐çais a voulu traiter le rapport de base que je leur avais fait réserver.
Liwen Feng, Xiangyan Ding, Yinghui Zhang, Ning Hu and Xiaoyang Bi
The study delves into the influence of wear cycles on these parameters. The purpose of this paper is to identify characteristic patterns of σRS and εPEEQ that discern varying wear…
Abstract
Purpose
The study delves into the influence of wear cycles on these parameters. The purpose of this paper is to identify characteristic patterns of σRS and εPEEQ that discern varying wear situations, thereby contributing to the enrichment of wear theory. Furthermore, the findings serve as a foundational basis for nondestructive and in situ wear detection methodologies, such as nonlinear ultrasonic detection, known for its sensitivity to σRS and εPEEQ.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper elucidates the wear mechanism through the lens of residual stress (σRS) and plastic deformation within distinct fretting regimes, using a two-dimensional cylindrical/flat contact model. It specifically explores the impact of the displacement amplitude and cycles on the distribution of residual stress and equivalent plastic strain (εPEEQ) in both gross slip regime and partial slip regimes.
Findings
Therefore, when surface observation of wear is challenging, detecting the σRS trend at the center/edge, region width and εPEEQ distribution, as well as the maximum σRS distribution along the depth, proves effective in distinguishing wear situations (partial or gross slip regimes). However, discerning wear situations based on εPEEQ along the depth direction remains challenging. Moreover, in the gross slip regime, using σRS distribution or εPEEQ along the width direction rather than the depth direction can effectively provide feedback on cycles and wear range.
Originality/value
This work introduces a novel perspective for investigating wear theory through the distribution of residual stress (σRS) and equivalent plastic strain (εPEEQ). It presents a feasible detection theory for wear situations using nondestructive and in situ methods, such as nonlinear ultrasonic detection, which is sensitive to σRS and εPEEQ.
Peer review
The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/ILT-01-2024-0005/
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Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to specify whether heterogeneous reference-point-based aspirations are related to the cooperation levels of R&D alliance portfolios in a positive or negative (or nonlinear) way, and to unveil how cooperative behaviors evolve in recurrent project cooperation.
Design/methodology/approach
This study establishes a network containing a cooperation subnetwork and a project subnetwork based on patent data in the “deep learning” field to investigate how cooperative behaviors evolve in R&D alliance portfolios. A model of evolutionary games on complex networks is constructed to gain insight into the dynamic evolution of DMs’ strategies.
Findings
First, the heterogeneous aspirations of DMs can improve the cooperation level in R&D alliance portfolios. Second, compared to prudent DMs, aggressive DMs are more likely to choose the cooperation strategy, implying that an appropriate aspiration level nurtures cooperative R&D endeavors with partners. Third, the effects of effort complementarity, knowledge reorganization capabilities and cooperation supervision on cooperation are contingent on the distribution of DMs’ aspiration types.
Practical implications
Policymakers should identify aspiration types of DMs when screening partners. They can encourage partners to focus more on historical payoffs and establish relatively higher aspiration levels to improve the cooperation level. Developing highly detailed contracts becomes crucial when cooperating with firms that possess extensive knowledge reorganization capabilities.
Originality/value
This work contributes a theoretical framework for investigating cooperation in R&D alliance portfolios through the lens of evolutionary games on complex networks, thus revealing the effects of heterogeneous reference-point-based aspirations of DMs on R&D cooperation.
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