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Article
Publication date: 5 December 2023

Gatot Soepriyanto, Shinta Amalina Hazrati Havidz and Rangga Handika

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential contagion of Bitcoin on financial markets and sheds light on the complex interplay between technological…

Abstract

Purpose

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential contagion of Bitcoin on financial markets and sheds light on the complex interplay between technological advancements, accounting regulatory and financial market stability.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs a multi-faceted approach to analyze the impact of BTC systemic risk, technological factors and regulatory variables on Asia–Pacific financial markets. Initially, a single-index model is used to estimate the systematic risk of BTC to financial markets. The study then uses ordinary least squares (OLS) to assess the potential impact of systemic risk, technological factors and regulatory variables on financial markets. To further control for time-varying factors common to all countries, a fixed effect (FE) panel data analysis is implemented. Additionally, a multinomial logistic regression model is utilized to evaluate the presence of contagion.

Findings

Results indicate that Bitcoin's systemic risk to the Asia–Pacific financial markets is relatively weak. Furthermore, technological advancements and international accounting standard adoption appear to indirectly stabilize these markets. The degree of contagion is also found to be stronger in foreign currencies (FX) than in stock index (INDEX) markets.

Research limitations/implications

This study has several limitations that should be considered when interpreting the study findings. First, the definition of financial contagion is not universally accepted, and the study results are based on the specific definition and methodology. Second, the matching of daily financial market and BTC data with annual technological and regulatory variable data may have limited the strength of the study findings. However, the authors’ use of both parametric and nonparametric methods provides insights that may inspire further research into cryptocurrency markets and financial contagions.

Practical implications

Based on the authors analysis, they suggest that financial market regulators prioritize the development and adoption of new technologies and international accounting standard practices, rather than focusing solely on the potential risks associated with cryptocurrencies. While a cryptocurrency crash could harm individual investors, it is unlikely to pose a significant threat to the overall financial system.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors knowledge, they have not found an asset pricing approach to assess a possible contagion. The authors have developed a new method to evaluate whether there is a contagion from BTC to financial markets. A simple but intuitive asset pricing method to evaluate a systematic risk from a factor is a single index model. The single index model has been extensively used in stock markets but has not been used to evaluate the systemic risk potentials of cryptocurrencies. The authors followed Morck et al. (2000) and Durnev et al. (2004) to assess whether there is a systemic risk from BTC to financial markets. If the BTC possesses a systematic risk, the explanatory power of the BTC index model should be high. Therefore, the first implied contribution is to re-evaluate the findings from Aslanidis et al. (2019), Dahir et al. (2019) and Handika et al. (2019), using a different method.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 October 2021

Rangga Handika

This paper offers an alternative approach to assessing contagions in price and load in the Australian interconnected power markets. This approach enabled us to identify a…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper offers an alternative approach to assessing contagions in price and load in the Australian interconnected power markets. This approach enabled us to identify a high-risk region and assess the direction of contagions from both buyers' and sellers' perspectives.

Design/methodology/approach

The author used a multinomial logit method to measure contagions. Having identified the exceedance and coexceedances, the author estimated the multinomial logit coefficients of the covariates explaining the probability of a certain number of coexceedances.

Findings

Market participants should recognize the presence of contagion risk and scrutinize price and load dynamics in the NSW and VIC regions to anticipate any simultaneous extreme changes. Regulators need to stabilize the demand and supply sides in those regions to minimize any possible contagions.

Originality/value

This paper presents a pioneering study investigating contagion in the Australian interconnected power markets.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 22 no. 3/4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 November 2018

Rangga Handika and Dony Abdul Chalid

This paper aims to investigate whether the best statistical model also corresponds to the best empirical performance in the volatility modeling of financialized commodity markets.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate whether the best statistical model also corresponds to the best empirical performance in the volatility modeling of financialized commodity markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use various p and q values in Value-at-Risk (VaR) GARCH(p, q) estimation and perform backtesting at different confidence levels, different out-of-sample periods and different data frequencies for eight financialized commodities.

Findings

They find that the best fitted GARCH(p,q) model tends to generate the best empirical performance for most financialized commodities. Their findings are consistent at different confidence levels and different out-of-sample periods. However, the strong results occur for both daily and weekly returns series. They obtain weak results for the monthly series.

Research limitations/implications

Their research method is limited to the GARCH(p,q) model and the eight discussed financialized commodities.

Practical implications

They conclude that they should continue to rely on the log-likelihood statistical criteria for choosing a GARCH(p,q) model in financialized commodity markets for daily and weekly forecasting horizons.

Social implications

The log-likelihood statistical criterion has strong predictive power in GARCH high-frequency data series (daily and weekly). This finding justifies the importance of using statistical criterion in financial market modeling.

Originality/value

First, this paper investigates whether the best statistical model corresponds to the best empirical performance. Second, this paper provides an indirect test for evaluating the accuracy of volatility modeling by using the VaR approach.

Details

Review of Accounting and Finance, vol. 17 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-7702

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 August 2017

Rangga Handika and Iswahyudi Sondi Putra

This paper aims to indirectly evaluate the accuracy of various volatility models using a value-at-risk (VaR) approach and to investigate the relationship between the accuracy of…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to indirectly evaluate the accuracy of various volatility models using a value-at-risk (VaR) approach and to investigate the relationship between the accuracy of volatility modelling and investments performance in the financialized commodity markets.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses the VaR back-testing approach at six different commodities, seven different volatility models and five different time horizons.

Findings

This paper finds that the moving average (MA) VaR model tends to be the best for oil, copper, wheat and corn (long horizon) whereas the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (E-GARCH) VaR model tends to be the best for gold, silver and corn (short horizon). Our findings indicate that MA volatility model should be used for oil, copper, wheat and corn (for longer time horizons) commodities whereas E-GARCH volatility model should be used for gold, silver and corn (for short time horizons) commodities. We also find that there is a positive relationship between an accurate VaR performance and commodity return. This indicates that a good job in modelling volatility will be rewarded by higher returns in financialized commodity markets.

Originality/value

This paper indirectly evaluates the accuracy of volatility model via VaR measure and investigates the relationship between the accuracy of volatility and investments performance in financialized commodity markets. This paper contributes to the literature by offering VaR approach in evaluating volatility model performance and reporting the importance of performing accurate volatility modelling in financialized commodity markets.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 34 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 February 2022

Dony Abdul Chalid and Rangga Handika

This study aims to investigate the benefits of commodity hedging in the global stock index, bond and foreign currency (FX) portfolios.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the benefits of commodity hedging in the global stock index, bond and foreign currency (FX) portfolios.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors compare various hedging strategies and factor transaction costs. The authors analyze equally weighted, dynamic hedging ratio, risk parity and reward to risk timing strategies. Volatilities are estimated using historical, GARCH(1,1), and APARCH(1,1) methods. In addition, the authors evaluate the portfolio's hedging performance (HP) based on four different dimensions: volatility (annualized standard deviation), Sharpe ratio (SR), HP, and high-low ratio (HL).

Findings

The authors observe different benefits of the commodity hedging strategy among financial assets (stocks, bonds or FX).The authors find that commodity hedging in the stock markets is the best option, if the authors optimize the hedging ratio using dynamic hedging from historical data. The authors also document that for stock portfolio managers, adding commodities will generate a more conservative strategy, whereas for bond and/or FX portfolio managers, adding commodities will generate a more aggressive strategy.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature by investigating commodity hedging in the global stock index, bond and FX portfolios. First, the authors provide details on the diversification benefits in the commodities. Second, the authors document the hedging strategy that is the best as a part of the diversification strategy by adding commodities. Third, the authors provide a practical analysis by reporting the financial assets portfolio that is appropriate for commodity hedging following the portfolio managers' objectives (e.g. reducing risks or improving the risk-reward ratio).

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 50 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

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