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Publication date: 21 September 2022

Michael Chin, Ferre De Graeve, Thomai Filippeli and Konstantinos Theodoridis

Long-term interest rates of small open economies (SOE) correlate strongly with the USA long-term rate. Can central banks in those countries decouple from the United States? An

Abstract

Long-term interest rates of small open economies (SOE) correlate strongly with the USA long-term rate. Can central banks in those countries decouple from the United States? An estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for the UK (vis-á-vis the USA) establishes three structural empirical results: (1) Comovement arises due to nominal fluctuations, not through real rates or term premia; (2) the cause of comovement is the central bank of the SOE accommodating foreign inflation trends, rather than systematically curbing them; and (3) SOE may find themselves much more affected by changes in USA inflation trends than the United States itself. All three results are shown to be intuitive and backed by off-model evidence.

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Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80382-832-9

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Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80382-636-3

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Book part
Publication date: 21 September 2022

Abstract

Details

Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80382-832-9

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