Search results

We aim to clarify the effect of economic uncertainty on Chinese stock market fluctuations. We extend the understanding of the asymmetric connectedness between economic uncertainty and stock market risk and provide different characteristics of spillovers from economic uncertainty to both upside and downside risk. Furthermore, we aim to provide the different impact patterns of stock market volatility following several exogenous shocks.

We construct a Chinese economic uncertainty index using a Factor-Augmented Variable Auto-Regressive Stochastic Volatility (FAVAR-SV) model for high-dimensional data. We then examine the asymmetric impact of realized volatility and economic uncertainty on the long-term volatility components of the stock market through the asymmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-Mixed Data Sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) model.

Negative news, including negative return-related volatility and higher economic uncertainty, has a greater impact on the long-term volatility components than positive news. During the financial crisis of 2008, economic uncertainty and realized volatility had a significant impact on long-term volatility components but did not constitute long-term volatility components during the 2015 A-share stock market crash and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. The two-factor asymmetric GARCH-MIDAS model outperformed the other two models in terms of explanatory power, fitting ability and out-of-sample forecasting ability for the long-term volatility component.

Many GARCH series models can also combine the GARCH series model with the MIDAS method, including but not limited to Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) and Threshold GARCH (TGARCH). These diverse models may exhibit distinct reactions to economic uncertainty. Consequently, further research should be undertaken to juxtapose alternative models for assessing the stock market response.

Our conclusions have important implications for stakeholders, including policymakers, market regulators and investors, to promote market stability. Understanding the asymmetric shock arising from economic uncertainty on volatility enables market participants to assess the potential repercussions of negative news, engage in timely and effective volatility prediction, implement risk management strategies and offer a reference for financial regulators to preemptively address and mitigate systemic financial risks.

First, in the face of domestic and international uncertainties and challenges, policymakers must increase communication with the market and improve policy transparency to effectively guide market expectations. Second, stock market authorities should improve the basic regulatory system of the capital market and optimize investor structure. Third, investors should gradually shift to long-term value investment concepts and jointly promote market stability.

This study offers a novel perspective on incorporating a Chinese economic uncertainty index constructed by a high-dimensional FAVAR-SV model into the asymmetric GARCH-MIDAS model.

The former residences of historical figures are typical landscape elements of historic districts, which are characterised by the styles of these residences and spiritual historical figures cultures. The purpose of this paper is to determine how the former residences respond once the historical figures living there have passed.

The history of human culture and progression of urban construction – which are submerged in societal transformation – is recorded for old Beijing city. Narrative space theory is used and methods such as a content analysis, map overlay and the Geographic Information System are employed to analyse the selected 300 former residences of historical figures in old Beijing city.

The results are as follows: the political setting played a key role in the evolution process, three political narrative areas in the inner city and one cultural narrative area in the outer city form the narrative spatial structure of the former residences of historical figures, “government construction” and “resident construction” are the main reasons for the loss and destruction of narrative spaces and ordinary life is an important channel for showcasing the history of former residences. The narrative spaces of these residences carry double histories, namely, the development of human history and of city construction.

Different from former studies that focus on the preservation of the single historical building, this study explores the integral logic of historic buildings in the whole city through narrative space theory to get a combination of culture and space.