Search results

The study seeks evidence on the asymmetric effects of broad money growth on inflation in the short run and long run, in the context of emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs).

Using a panel dataset of 122 EMDEs (by distinguishing between inflation-targeting and non-inflation-targeting EMDEs), we employ the nonlinear counterpart of the autoregressive distributed lag framework, which provides evidence of asymmetric dynamics between money growth and inflation in EMDEs.

In consonance with the quantity theory of money, we find a long-run relationship between money growth and inflationary outcomes. We also find that the response of inflation is higher to a tightening episode in the monetary policy stance than to a loosening episode. The study also provides evidence that adopting the inflation targeting framework in EMDEs has led to a significant reduction in the inflation rates along with ensuring a higher magnitude of transmission from money supply growth to inflationary outcomes.

To the best of our knowledge, the present study is one of the first attempts to evaluate the differential impact of broad money growth on inflationary outcomes, using a panel dataset of EMDEs. As a result of inherent differences in the financial structures of EMDEs vis-à-vis advanced nations, there is an imperative need to assess the dynamics of pass-through from money supply to inflation to gain an understanding of the mechanism of monetary transmission in these economies.

We analyze the role of monetary policy shocks on food inflation in Hungary from January 2007 to March 2023, including the period of the COVID-19 crisis and the Russo–Ukrainian war.

We use quantile regression with three different specifications. The structural breaks in the time series and the monetary policy’s lag in response are also taken into account. We use the M0 money supply and the three-month Hungarian National Bank (MNB) deposit rate as monetary measures to check the robustness of our findings.

We find that neither the money supply nor the exchange rate affected food inflation across quantiles. In the case of high food price inflation, reducing short-term government bond yields may be an effective solution. Household final consumption affected food prices in the lower quantiles, and the global food price index similarly affected Hungarian food inflation. The results are robust to different specifications.

This research has limitations as follows: while Hungary’s food prices provide a valuable case study, expanding to more countries is advisable; although quantile regression captures details, its reliability for non-linear relationships is questionable; additionally, considering various global food price indicators can enhance result robustness.

The paper contributes to the longstanding political debate regarding the effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilizing food inflation. The findings emphasize the importance of considering both domestic and global factors in formulating policy responses to food price dynamics.

This study aims to investigate the effect of CBDC issuance on economic growth rate and inflation rate in Nigeria. We are interested in determining whether the rate of economic growth and inflation changed significantly after the issuance of a non-interest bearing CBDC in Nigeria.

Two-stage least squares regression and granger causality test were used to analyze the data.

Inflation significantly increased in the CBDC period, implying that CBDC issuance did not decrease the rate of inflation in Nigeria. Economic growth rate significantly increased in the CBDC period, implying that CBDC issuance improved economic growth in Nigeria. The financial sector, agricultural sector and manufacturing sector witnessed a much stronger contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) after CBDC issuance. There is one-way granger causality between CBDC issuance and monthly inflation, implying that CBDC issuance causes a significant change in monthly inflation in Nigeria. The implication of the result is that the non-interest bearing eNaira CBDC is not able to solve the twin economic problem of “controlling inflation which stifles economic growth” and “stimulating economic growth which leads to more inflation.” Policy makers should therefore use the eNaira CBDC alongside other monetary policy tools at their disposal to control inflation while stimulating growth in the economy.

There are no empirical studies on the effect of CBDC issuance on economic growth or inflation using real-world data. We add to the monetary economics literature by analyzing the effect of CBDC issuance on economic growth and inflation.

India’s historical fiscal performance has featured elevated deficit levels. Driven by the imperative need for fiscal stimulus measures in response to the crisis, efforts toward fiscal consolidation from 2003 to 2008 were reversed in 2008–2009 due to the financial crisis. These stimulus actions are believed to have wielded a notable influence on inflation dynamics. Presumably, a high inflation rate hinders growth and inflicts severe welfare costs. Accordingly, the principal objective of this paper is to scrutinise the threshold effects of fiscal deficit on inflation within the context of the Indian economy.

We employed the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) Model, a robust tool for capturing non-linear relationships, to discern the specific threshold level of fiscal deficit. Our analysis encompasses annual data spanning from 1971 to 2020. Additionally, we have leveraged the Toda-Yamamoto causality test to establish the existence and direction of a causal connection between fiscal deficit and inflation in the Indian economy.

Our analysis pinpointed a critical threshold level of 3.40% for fiscal deficit, a value beyond which inflation dynamics in India undergo a marked transition, signifying the presence of significant non-linear effects. Moreover, the results derived from the Toda-Yamamoto causality test offer substantiating evidence of a causal relationship originating from the fiscal deficit and leading to inflation within the Indian economic framework.

The findings of our study carry significant implications, particularly for the formulation and execution of both fiscal and monetary policies. Understanding the threshold effects of fiscal deficit on inflation in India provides policymakers with valuable insights into achieving a harmonious balance between these two critical economic variables.

To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first of its kind to empirically investigate threshold effects of fiscal deficit on inflation in India from a non-linear perspective using the Smooth Transition Autoregression (STAR) model.

The purpose of this paper is to extend the literature on the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty by examining three Caribbean countries: the Bahamas, Barbados, and Jamaica.

ARMA‐GARCH models are used to estimate inflation uncertainty along with Granger‐causality tests to infer the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty.

The results reveal that both the Bahamas and Jamaica exhibit a high degree of volatility persistence in response to inflationary shocks, while Barbados has a much lower persistence measure. Granger‐causality tests indicate that an increase in inflation has been a positive impact on inflation uncertainty for each country. However, an increase in inflation uncertainty yields a decrease in inflation in the case of Jamaica. In summary, the results for the Bahamas and Barbados support the Friedman‐Ball hypothesis, whereas the results for Jamaica support Holland's stabilization‐motive hypothesis.

Future research on inflation and inflation uncertainty can be extended to incorporate possible regime shifts associated with fiscal and monetary policy.

The study fills a void in the literature with respect to the inflation‐inflation uncertainty nexus for Caribbean countries. The results of the paper may be useful to policymakers in the formulation of fiscal and monetary policy.

This paper investigates the generalized Fisher hypothesis for nine equity markets in the Asian countries. It states that the real rates of return on common stocks and the expected inflation rate are independent and that nominal stock returns vary in a one‐to‐one correspondence with the expected inflation rate. The regression results indicate that stock returns in general are negatively correlated to both expected and unexpected inflation, and that common stocks provide a poor hedge against inflation. However, the results of the VAR model indicate the lack of a unidirectional causality between stock returns and inflation. It also fails to find a consistent negative response neither of inflation to shocks in stock returns nor of stock returns to shocks in inflation in all countries. It appears that the generalized Fisher hypothesis in the Asian markets is as puzzling as in the developed markets.

Vector‐autoregression (VAR), integration, and cointegration models are used to investigate the causal relations, dynamic interaction, and a common trend between interest rates and inflation in nine countries in the Pacific‐Basin. This paper finds that for all countries, short‐ and long‐term interest rates and the spread between the long‐term interest rates and inflation are non‐stationary I (1) processes. The nominal interest rates and inflation are not co‐integrated. In addition to this study’s inability to find a unidirectional causality between inflation and interest rates, when the VAR model is used, it also fails to find a consistent positive response either of inflation to shocks in interest rates or of interest rates to shocks in inflation in most of the countries studied. The VAR model results are consistent with the cointegration tests’ results, that is, nominal interest rates are poor predictors for future inflation in the Pacific‐Basin countries.

The purpose of this paper is to amend the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) model to include inflation volatility. It provides results on the determinants of inflation volatility and expected inflation volatility for ordinary least squares and autoregressive distributed lags (1,1) models and for change in inflation volatility and change in expected inflation volatility using error correction mechanism (ECM) models. Output gap affects change in expected inflation volatility alone (in the ECM model) and not in the other models. Major determinants of inflation volatility and expected inflation volatility are identified. To the best of the authors knowledge this is the first paper to augment the NKPC to include inflation volatility.

Recent analysis has indicated the importance of inflation volatility for the monetary transmission mechanism in India (Kapur and Behera, 2012). In the analysis of such monetary policy mechanisms the NKPC has proved to be a useful tool. Thus Patra and Ray (2010) for India and Brissimis and Magginas (2008) for the USA find considerable support for the standard NKPC. The purpose of this paper is to synthesize and integrate these two models by extending the standard NKPC framework to include inflation volatility and test its significance for the case of India.

In the case of inflation volatility output gap, lagged output gap and lagged inflation volatility are all insignificant. The level of inflation has a negative significant impact whereas the level of expected inflation has a positive and significant impact. In the case of expected inflation volatility lagged output gap has a negative and significant impact, the price level has a positive and significant impact whereas expected price has a negative and weakly significant impact. ECM reveals change in inflation variability falls significantly with lagged inflation volatility and lagged inflation and less significantly with change in expected inflation. It rises with lagged expected inflation although the coefficient is only weakly significant. Lagged output gap and change in output gap are insignificant.

This paper makes two original contributions. First, it extends the New Keynesian framework to include inflation volatility. Second, it estimates this model for India. To the best of the authors knowledge this is the first paper to make these contributions.

Tests the inflation‐hedging ability of Swiss real estate over the 1943‐1991 period and, for comparison purposes, that of stocks. Results show that in the long run real estate seems to provide a better hedge against inflation than common stocks. When the inflation rate is broken down into its expected and unexpected components, all coefficients are negative for stocks, whereas some coefficients are positive for real estate. This is particularly true for unexpected inflation. These results are interesting in that the proxy used for real estate (i.e. data pertaining to real estate mutual funds) should be a much better indicator of changes in the underlying real estate than indices which have been used so far. Moreover, the data exists for a very long time period, which makes it possible to test the long‐term ability of real estate to hedge against changes in the purchasing power.

This study aims to both test the asymmetric information hypothesis and explore the factors influencing the one‐ through four‐quarter‐ahead Federal Reserve inflation forecasts for 1983‐2002.

Encompassing tests are used to examine the asymmetric information hypothesis. In modeling the Federal Reserve inflation forecasts, the authors are mindful of alternative theories of inflation which emphasize such determinants as cost‐push, demand‐pull and inertial factors.

First, the Federal Reserve inflation forecasts embody useful predictive information beyond that contained in the private forecasts. Second, with the private forecasts controlled for, the near‐term Federal Reserve inflation forecasts make use of qualitative information, and the longer‐term forecasts are influenced by the forecasts of growth in both unit labor costs and aggregate demand as well as the preceding‐quarter inflation forecasts and monetary policy shifts.

The Federal Reserve forecasts are released to the public with a five‐year lag and are currently available up to the fourth quarter of 2002. This limits the use of the most up‐to‐date forecasts desirable for this study.

The factors influencing the Federal Reserve inflation forecasts are basically those emphasized publicly by monetary authorities. This finding points to the Fed's transparency and should thus help enhance its credibility with the public. Also, our results (which shed light on the predictive information in the Federal Reserve inflation forecasts not included in the private forecasts) are of value, since they can help the Fed better predict how inflation will respond to policy actions, and they can help the public form more informative inflationary expectations.